Offense#125
-8.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.14 #85 FBSSuccess rate42.2% #70 FBS
Conference USA · #129 of 138
Middle Tennessee
Implied Strength-18.7vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility22%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule125thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. NevadaWeek 3 · OV Line MTSU +4.5 · 37% win chance →Toughest remaining test#50 KansasWeek 5 · 2% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.0 rating points.
Defense#132
-9.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.21 #111 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.1% #105 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Middle Tennessee's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (4.2 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 2–6 winsBowl eligible 21.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title1.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Middle Tennessee. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production32.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class104thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production129thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.0Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Murray State at Middle Tennessee · Murfreesboro, TN · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Middle Tennessee through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%6–6 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts58% inside 3 points · 7 of 12
Factor coverage33%4 of 12 games
Factor signals75% aligned3 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Middle Tennessee games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 6.9 pts toward Middle Tennessee | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at New Mexico StateAway | Middle Tennessee +5 | Middle Tennessee +3.5 | 1.4 pts toward Middle Tennessee | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Middle Tennessee | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Sam HoustonHome | Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Middle Tennessee -6.5 | 0.8 pts toward Middle Tennessee | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Middle Tennessee | W 31–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Western KentuckyAway | Middle Tennessee +14.5 | Middle Tennessee +13.5 | 1.0 pts toward Middle Tennessee | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.1 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 26–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Florida InternationalHome | Middle Tennessee +1.5 | Middle Tennessee -1.5 | 3.2 pts toward Middle Tennessee | None identified | 3.2 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 30–56 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Jacksonville StateHome | Middle Tennessee +4 | Middle Tennessee +4.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 21–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at DelawareAway | Middle Tennessee +14 | Middle Tennessee +8.5 | 5.3 pts toward Middle Tennessee | 1.8 pts toward Middle Tennessee | 3.6 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 28–31 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Missouri StateHome | Middle Tennessee +4 | Middle Tennessee +3 | 1.0 pts toward Middle Tennessee | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 20–22 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Kennesaw StateAway | Middle Tennessee +7 | Middle Tennessee +7 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 16–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. MarshallHome | Middle Tennessee +7.5 | Middle Tennessee +2.5 | 4.9 pts toward Middle Tennessee | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 28–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at NevadaAway | Middle Tennessee +12 | Middle Tennessee +9.5 | 2.4 pts toward Middle Tennessee | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Middle Tennessee | W 14–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at WisconsinAway | Middle Tennessee +43.5 | Middle Tennessee +28.5 | 14.8 pts toward Middle Tennessee | 6.9 pts toward Middle Tennessee | 7.9 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 10–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Austin PeayHome | Middle Tennessee -11 | Middle Tennessee -15.5 | 4.3 pts toward Middle Tennessee | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Middle Tennessee | L 14–34 | L | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.