Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Middle Tennessee was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyKennesaw State at Middle Tennessee
Week 9 · Oct 28Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Kennesaw State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Kennesaw State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Middle Tennessee -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 26, 4:23 PM EDT
Middle Tennessee -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 26, 4:23 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Middle TennesseeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Middle Tennessee enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Middle Tennessee lost the most recent meeting with Kennesaw State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Kennesaw State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Kennesaw State enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Kennesaw State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Kennesaw State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Kennesaw State 44 · Middle Tennessee 28
- Pregame OV Line
- Kennesaw State -1
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Middle Tennessee -2.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Kennesaw State by 16
Observed 50h 36m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineKennesaw State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Kennesaw State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMiddle Tennessee -3Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Middle Tennessee -3Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Kennesaw State 52.4%Middle Tennessee 47.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Middle Tennessee -2.5
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