Offense#117
-7.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.15 #79 FBSSuccess rate41.1% #83 FBS
Conference USA · #118 of 138
Kennesaw State
Implied Strength-13.7vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility48%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule126thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat TennesseeWeek 3 · OV Line KENN +33.5 · <0.01% win chance →Toughest remaining test#17 TennesseeWeek 3 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.0 rating points.
Defense#113
-6.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.17 #77 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.3% #80 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Kennesaw State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–8 winsBowl eligible 47.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title7.6%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
6% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Kennesaw State in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production6.1%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class33rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production120thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.4Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover
West Georgia at Kennesaw State · Kennesaw, GA · Fifth Third Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Kennesaw State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS69%9–4 against consensus
Average line gap3.0 pts46% inside 3 points · 6 of 13
Factor coverage31%4 of 13 games
Factor signals50% aligned2 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample13 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Kennesaw State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.2 pts toward Kennesaw State | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 4.8 pts toward Kennesaw State | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 13 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | at Jacksonville StateAway | Kennesaw State -1.5 | Kennesaw State -3 | 1.6 pts toward Kennesaw State | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Kennesaw State | W 19–15 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W14 | at LibertyAway | Kennesaw State +3 | Kennesaw State -2.5 | 5.7 pts toward Kennesaw State | None identified | 5.7 pts toward Kennesaw State | W 48–42 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Missouri StateHome | Kennesaw State -7 | Kennesaw State -6.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 41–34 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Jacksonville StateAway | Kennesaw State -0.5 | Kennesaw State -3.5 | 3.1 pts toward Kennesaw State | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Kennesaw State | L 26–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at New Mexico StateAway | Kennesaw State -6.5 | Kennesaw State -11.5 | 5.1 pts toward Kennesaw State | 1.0 pts toward Kennesaw State | 4.1 pts toward Kennesaw State | W 24–21 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. UTEPHome | Kennesaw State -7 | Kennesaw State -12.5 | 5.4 pts toward Kennesaw State | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 6.9 pts toward Kennesaw State | W 33–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at Florida InternationalAway | Kennesaw State +3 | Kennesaw State -3 | 5.8 pts toward Kennesaw State | 1.3 pts toward Kennesaw State | 4.6 pts toward Kennesaw State | W 45–26 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Louisiana TechHome | Kennesaw State +8 | Kennesaw State +4.5 | 3.7 pts toward Kennesaw State | None identified | 3.7 pts toward Kennesaw State | W 35–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Middle TennesseeHome | Kennesaw State -7 | Kennesaw State -7 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 24–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Arkansas StateHome | Kennesaw State +2 | Kennesaw State +4.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 28–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. MerrimackHome | Kennesaw State -14 | Kennesaw State -17.5 | 3.3 pts toward Kennesaw State | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Kennesaw State | W 27–13 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at IndianaAway | Kennesaw State +34 | Kennesaw State +35.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 4.8 pts toward Kennesaw State | 6.5 pts toward opponents | L 9–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at Wake ForestAway | Kennesaw State +17.5 | Kennesaw State +18.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 9–10 | W | None identified |
Sample: 13 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.