Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Middle Tennessee enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNevada at Middle Tennessee
Week 3 · Sep 19Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Nevada -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Nevada -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNevada -3.59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 6:45 PM EDT
Nevada -3.59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 6:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Middle TennesseeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Middle Tennessee enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Middle Tennessee is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Nevada enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Nevada enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Nevada was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Nevada is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Nevada lost the most recent meeting with Middle Tennessee.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Nevada faces materially stronger Air Force in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Nevada 20 · Middle Tennessee 27
- Pregame OV Line
- Nevada -4.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Nevada -3.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Middle Tennessee by 7
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNevada -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Nevada -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNevada -4Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Nevada -4Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Nevada 63.2%Middle Tennessee 36.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Nevada -3.5
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