Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Marshall enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMiddle Tennessee at Marshall
Week 2 · Sep 12Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Huntington, WV
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Marshall -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Marshall -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusMarshall -13.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Marshall -13.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Middle TennesseeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Marshall enters after losing its previous lined game by 45 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Marshall is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 535 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Middle Tennessee lost the most recent meeting with Marshall.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Middle Tennessee lost the most recent meeting with Marshall by at least 14 points.
Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Middle Tennessee is the underdog in a matchup played at least 5 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 901 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Middle Tennessee 26 · Marshall 28
- Pregame OV Line
- Marshall -15
- Final recorded market
- Marshall -13.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Marshall by 2
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMarshall -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Marshall -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMarshall -16Based on 2 books
Marshall -16Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Middle Tennessee 12.3%Marshall 87.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Marshall -13.5
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