Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Kansas enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyArizona State vs Kansas
Week 3 · Sep 19Neutral Site · Wembley Stadium · London
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Arizona State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusArizona State -59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 11:45 AM EDT
Arizona State -59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 11:45 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward Arizona StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Kansas enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Kansas is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Kansas lost the most recent meeting with Arizona State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Arizona State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Arizona State 24 · Kansas 17
- Pregame OV Line
- Arizona State -2.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Arizona State -5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Arizona State by 7
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineArizona State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusArizona State -6Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Arizona State -6Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Arizona State 57.1%Kansas 42.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Arizona State -5
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