Offense#100
-4.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.17 #67 FBSSuccess rate41.0% #85 FBS
Mountain West · #105 of 138
Hawai'i
Implied Strength-10.4vs. FBS average · ±2.9
Record1–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility48%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule113thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat WyomingWeek 4 · OV Line HAW +2 · 43% win chance →Toughest remaining test#41 Arizona StateWeek 6 · 6% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.5 rating points.
Defense#110
-5.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.16 #76 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.9% #74 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Hawai'i's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 47.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title1.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Hawai'i. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production64.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class102ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production108thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.0Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
UNLV at Hawai'i · Honolulu, HI · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
6:59 PM · Nov 14
North Dakota State at Hawai'i · Honolulu, HI · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Hawai'i through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS67%8–4 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts75% inside 3 points · 9 of 12
Factor coverage17%2 of 12 games
Factor signals100% aligned1 of 1 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Hawai'i games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.7 pts toward Hawai'i | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. WyomingHome | Hawai'i -7.5 | Hawai'i -8.5 | 0.9 pts toward Hawai'i | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Hawai'i | W 27–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at UNLVAway | Hawai'i +6 | Hawai'i +2.5 | 3.5 pts toward Hawai'i | 1.7 pts toward Hawai'i | 1.8 pts toward Hawai'i | L 10–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. San Diego StateHome | Hawai'i +3.5 | Hawai'i +6.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 38–6 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at San José StateAway | Hawai'i +3.5 | Hawai'i +2.5 | 0.9 pts toward Hawai'i | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Hawai'i | L 38–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at Colorado StateAway | Hawai'i +2 | Hawai'i +2.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 31–19 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Utah StateHome | Hawai'i -1.5 | Hawai'i +1.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 44–26 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Air ForceAway | Hawai'i +4 | Hawai'i +7 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 44–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Fresno StateHome | Hawai'i +4.5 | Hawai'i +2.5 | 2.2 pts toward Hawai'i | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Hawai'i | L 21–23 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Portland StateHome | Hawai'i -19 | Hawai'i -36.5 | 17.4 pts toward Hawai'i | None identified | 17.4 pts toward Hawai'i | W 23–3 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Sam HoustonHome | Hawai'i -10 | Hawai'i -7.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 37–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at ArizonaAway | Hawai'i +13.5 | Hawai'i +15.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 6–40 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. StanfordHome | Hawai'i -1 | Hawai'i -1.5 | 0.7 pts toward Hawai'i | No net direction | 0.7 pts toward Hawai'i | W 23–20 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.