New Mexico at Hawai'i

Week 7 · Oct 17Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNew Mexico -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNew Mexico -14.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico -16.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward New MexicoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNew Mexico -18.5Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico -16.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward New MexicoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)New Mexico -18.5Opening Market ConsensusNew Mexico -14Unexplained at open~4.5 pts toward Hawai'iSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)New Mexico -18.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNew Mexico -14.5Unexplained gap~4 pts toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps New Mexico has extra rest~2 pts toward New Mexico

New Mexico has extra rest

~2 pts toward New Mexico

New Mexico has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward New Mexico; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i enters after losing its previous lined game by 18 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Hawai'i is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i is a 14.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

New Mexico enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

New Mexico enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

New Mexico has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

New Mexico is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

New Mexico is favored by 14.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

New Mexico lost the most recent meeting with Hawai'i.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

New Mexico faces materially stronger North Dakota State in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

New Mexico is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger North Dakota State.

Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?New Mexico 21 · Hawai'i 10
Pregame OV Line
New Mexico -16.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
New Mexico -14.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
New Mexico -18.5
Actual margin
New Mexico by 11

Observed 13h 27m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
New Mexico 89.9%Hawai'i 10.1%

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Compare Teams

New MexicoVSHawai'i

Model View

Overall Rating+3.8 · #55-10.8 · #103
Offense Rating+1.5-4.7
Defense Rating+2.3-6.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.160.17
Offense Success Rate40.8%41.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.16
Defense Success Rate Allowed39.5%41.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.27.0
Playoff Odds6.1%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank108th126th