Offense#112
-6.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.17 #65 FBSSuccess rate43.2% #57 FBS
Mountain West · #116 of 138
San José State
Implied Strength-13.1vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record2–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility57%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule94thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Fresno StateWeek 3 · OV Line SJSU +10 · 21% win chance →Toughest remaining test#68 Fresno StateWeek 3 · 21% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#118
-6.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.20 #105 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.4% #83 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How San José State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–7 (5.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 56.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title1.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
4% of prior-year PPA returns, placing San José State in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production3.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class106thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production118thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.5Consensus preseason line
Final · Aug 29Suggested side covered
San José State at USC · Los Angeles, CA · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover
San José State at Eastern Michigan · Ypsilanti, MI · Rynearson Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
San José State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS33%4–8 against consensus
Average line gap2.1 pts75% inside 3 points · 9 of 12
Factor coverage17%2 of 12 games
Factor signals0% aligned0 of 1 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in San José State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 4.1 pts toward San José State | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Fresno StateHome | San José State +1 | San José State +3.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 14–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at San Diego StateAway | San José State +11 | San José State +10 | 1.0 pts toward San José State | None identified | 1.0 pts toward San José State | L 3–25 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at NevadaAway | San José State -8.5 | San José State -9.5 | 1.1 pts toward San José State | None identified | 1.1 pts toward San José State | L 10–55 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Air ForceHome | San José State -3 | San José State -6 | 3.2 pts toward San José State | None identified | 3.2 pts toward San José State | L 16–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Hawai'iHome | San José State -3.5 | San José State -2.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 45–38 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at Utah StateAway | San José State +3.5 | San José State +3 | 0.6 pts toward San José State | None identified | 0.6 pts toward San José State | L 25–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at WyomingAway | San José State 0 | San José State -1.5 | 1.5 pts toward San José State | None identified | 1.5 pts toward San José State | L 28–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. New MexicoHome | San José State -4.5 | San José State -2 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 35–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at StanfordAway | San José State +4.5 | San José State +3 | 1.4 pts toward San José State | None identified | 1.4 pts toward San José State | L 29–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. IdahoHome | San José State -10 | San José State -14 | 4.1 pts toward San José State | None identified | 4.1 pts toward San José State | W 31–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at TexasAway | San José State +30 | San José State +37 | 6.5 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward San José State | 10.6 pts toward opponents | L 7–38 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Central MichiganHome | San José State -14.5 | San José State -14.5 | 0.1 pts toward San José State | No net direction | 0.1 pts toward San José State | L 14–16 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.