Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
San José State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNew Mexico at San José State
Week 9 · Oct 31CEFCU Stadium · San Jose, CA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
New Mexico -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
New Mexico -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNew Mexico -14.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
New Mexico -14.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward San José StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
San José State enters after losing its previous lined game by 15 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
San José State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
San José State is a 14.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
New Mexico enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
New Mexico has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
New Mexico is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
New Mexico is favored by 14.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
New Mexico lost the most recent meeting with San José State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?New Mexico 21 · San José State 16
- Pregame OV Line
- New Mexico -16
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- New Mexico -14.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- New Mexico by 5
Observed 10h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNew Mexico -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
New Mexico -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNew Mexico -14.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
New Mexico -14.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
New Mexico 88.7%San José State 11.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · New Mexico -14.5
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