San José State at USC

Week 0 · Aug 29Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA
San José State2–1-13.1 vs. avg · #116
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USC3–0+18.7 vs. avg · #13

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineUSC -36Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusUSC -39.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUSC -36Factor Adjustments~3 pts toward San José StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUSC -33Unexplained Gap~6.5 pts toward USCExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUSC -36Factor adjustment (Open)~3.5 pts toward San José StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)USC -32.5Opening Market ConsensusUSC -35.5Unexplained at open~3 pts toward USCSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward USCOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)USC -33Current Market ConsensusUSC -39.5Unexplained gap~6.5 pts toward USCExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~3 pts toward San José StateAt open ~3.5 pts toward San José StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward USC

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~3 pts toward San José StateAt open ~3.5 pts toward San José StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward USC
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Comparable games give USC about a 65% chance to win by 28 or more. Markets historically shaded about 3.2 points toward San José State (average-estimate range 2.2–4.6).

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?San José State 26 · USC 42
Pregame OV Line
USC -36
Final recorded market
USC -39.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
USC -33
Actual margin
USC by 16

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
San José State 0.4%USC 99.6%

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Compare Teams

San José StateVSUSC

Model View

Overall Rating-13.1 · #116+18.7 · #13
Offense Rating-6.3+12.2
Defense Rating-6.8+6.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.34
Offense Success Rate43.2%49.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.200.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.4%44.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.58.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%17.0%
Strength of Schedule Rank94th21st