San José State at USC

Week 0 · Aug 29Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA
San José State4–5-12.4 vs. avg · #114
@
USC7–2+17.2 vs. avg · #12

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineUSC -36Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusUSC -37.511-book consensus · observed Aug 29, 2:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUSC -36Factor Adjustments~3 pts toward San José StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUSC -33Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward USCExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUSC -36Factor adjustment (Open)~3.5 pts toward San José StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)USC -32.5Opening Market ConsensusUSC -35.5Unexplained at open~3 pts toward USCSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward USCOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)USC -33Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusUSC -37.5Unexplained gap~4.5 pts toward USCExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~3 pts toward San José StateAt open ~3.5 pts toward San José StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward USC

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~3 pts toward San José StateAt open ~3.5 pts toward San José StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward USC
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Comparable games give USC about a 65% chance to win by 28 or more. Markets historically shaded about 3.2 points toward San José State (average-estimate range 2.2–4.6).

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?San José State 26 · USC 42
Pregame OV Line
USC -36
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
USC -37.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
USC -33
Actual margin
USC by 16

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
San José State 0.4%USC 99.6%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Aug 29.

Compare Teams

San José StateVSUSC

Model View

Overall Rating-12.4 · #114+17.2 · #12
Offense Rating-5.9+11.4
Defense Rating-6.5+5.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.34
Offense Success Rate43.2%49.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.200.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.4%44.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.58.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%16.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank92nd28th