Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Nevada enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySan José State at Nevada
Week 8 · Oct 24Mackay Stadium · Reno, NV
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Nevada -4Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Nevada -4Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNevada -5.511-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Nevada -5.511-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward NevadaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Nevada enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Nevada has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Nevada is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Nevada faces materially stronger UCLA in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
San José State lost the most recent meeting with Nevada.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
San José State lost the most recent meeting with Nevada by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
San José State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
San José State faces materially stronger New Mexico in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?San José State 13 · Nevada 28
- Pregame OV Line
- Nevada -4
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Nevada -5.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Nevada by 15
Observed 2h 47m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNevada -4Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Nevada -4Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNevada -5.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Nevada -5.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
San José State 37.5%Nevada 62.5%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Nevada -5.5
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