Offense#49
+2.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.29 #20 FBSSuccess rate47.6% #14 FBS
Mountain West · #87 of 138
Air Force
Implied Strength-6.2vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility77%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule103rdof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat NevadaWeek 4 · OV Line AF -3 · 60% win chance →Toughest remaining test#70 NavyWeek 5 · 41% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 12.0 rating points.
Defense#126
-9.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.40 #136 FBSSuccess rate allowed49.4% #134 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Air Force's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 77.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.4%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.4% total
Auto-bid0.3%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.7%
Conference title6.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Air Force. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production57.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class138thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production94thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.4Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Duquesne at Air Force · Colorado Springs, CO · Falcon Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Air Force through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS47%7–8 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts53% inside 3 points · 8 of 15
Factor coverage33%5 of 15 games
Factor signals83% aligned5 of 6 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample15 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Air Force games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward Air Force | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 15 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Colorado StateAway | Air Force -1 | Air Force -2.5 | 1.3 pts toward Air Force | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Air Force | W 42–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. New MexicoHome | Air Force -1 | Air Force +3.5 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.7 pts toward opponents | L 3–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at UConnAway | Air Force +8.5 | Air Force +7.5 | 0.9 pts toward Air Force | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Air Force | L 16–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at San José StateAway | Air Force +3 | Air Force +6 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 26–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. WyomingHome | Air Force -7 | Air Force -4 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at UNLVAway | Air Force +7.5 | Air Force +7 | 0.5 pts toward Air Force | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Air Force | L 48–51 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at NavyAway | Air Force +11.5 | Air Force +13.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Hawai'iHome | Air Force -4 | Air Force -7 | 2.8 pts toward Air Force | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Air Force | L 35–44 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Boise StateHome | Air Force +6 | Air Force +11 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 37–49 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at Utah StateAway | Air Force -8 | Air Force -4 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Air Force | 5.7 pts toward opponents | L 30–49 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. BucknellHome | Air Force -30.5 | Air Force -31 | 0.3 pts toward Air Force | 3.4 pts toward Air Force | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 49–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. ArmyNeutral | Air Force -14.5 | Air Force -7 | 7.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.4 pts toward opponents | W 13–7 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. Boise StateHome | Air Force -6.5 | Air Force -2.5 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 14–19 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. ColoradoHome | Air Force -31 | Air Force -17.5 | 13.7 pts toward opponents | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 9.9 pts toward opponents | W 41–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Northern IowaHome | Air Force -18 | Air Force -15 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 48–17 | W | None identified |
Sample: 15 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.