Duquesne at Air Force

Week 1 · Sep 5Falcon Stadium · Colorado Springs, CO
DuquesneFCS
@
Air Force1–1-6.2 vs. avg · #87

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineAir Force -26.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusAir Force -30.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineAir Force -26.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineAir Force -29Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Air ForceExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineAir Force -26.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Air Force -28Opening Market ConsensusAir Force -29.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward Air ForceSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Air Force -29Current Market ConsensusAir Force -30.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward Air ForceExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward Air ForceAt open ~1.5 pts toward Air ForceIn-week ~1 pt toward Air Force

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward Air ForceAt open ~1.5 pts toward Air ForceIn-week ~1 pt toward Air Force
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Air Force's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 59%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Air Force (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Duquesne 0 · Air Force 34
Pregame OV Line
Air Force -26.5
Final recorded market
Air Force -30.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Air Force -29
Actual margin
Air Force by 34

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Duquesne 2.7%Air Force 97.3%

Compare Teams

DuquesneVSAir Force

Model View

Overall Rating—-6.2 · #87
Offense Rating—+2.9
Defense Rating—-9.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.29
Offense Success Rate—47.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.40
Defense Success Rate Allowed—49.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.4
Playoff Odds—0.4%
Strength of Schedule Rank—103rd