Duquesne at Air Force

Week 1 · Sep 5Falcon Stadium · Colorado Springs, CO
DuquesneFCS
@
Air Force6–2-6.1 vs. avg · #90

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineAir Force -26.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusAir Force -31.58-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 12:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineAir Force -26.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineAir Force -29Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward Air ForceExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineAir Force -26.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Air Force -28Opening Market ConsensusAir Force -29.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward Air ForceSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Air Force -29Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusAir Force -31.5Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward Air ForceExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward Air ForceAt open ~1.5 pts toward Air ForceIn-week ~1 pt toward Air Force

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward Air ForceAt open ~1.5 pts toward Air ForceIn-week ~1 pt toward Air Force
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Air Force's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 59%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Air Force (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Duquesne 0 · Air Force 34
Pregame OV Line
Air Force -26.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Air Force -31.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Air Force -29
Actual margin
Air Force by 34

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Duquesne 2.7%Air Force 97.3%

Compare Teams

DuquesneVSAir Force

Model View

Overall Rating—-6.1 · #90
Offense Rating—+3.0
Defense Rating—-9.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.29
Offense Success Rate—47.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.40
Defense Success Rate Allowed—49.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.4
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—102nd