Air Force at Nevada

Week 4 · Sep 26Mackay Stadium · Reno, NV
Air Force6–2-6.1 vs. avg · #90
@
Nevada3–5-8.7 vs. avg · #97

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineAir Force -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusAir Force -5.510-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 10:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineAir Force -5.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineAir Force -7Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward NevadaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineAir Force -5.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Air ForceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Air Force -7Opening Market ConsensusAir Force -5.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward NevadaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Air Force -7Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusAir Force -5.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward NevadaExplore similar gaps Air Force has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Air Force

Air Force has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Air Force

Air Force has 6.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Air Force; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Air Force 36 · Nevada 33
Pregame OV Line
Air Force -5.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Air Force -5.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Air Force -7
Actual margin
Air Force by 3

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Air Force 67.1%Nevada 32.9%

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Compare Teams

Air ForceVSNevada

Model View

Overall Rating-6.1 · #90-8.7 · #97
Offense Rating+3.0-5.7
Defense Rating-9.1-3.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.290.03
Offense Success Rate47.6%37.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.400.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed49.4%42.6%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.44.3
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank102nd105th