Close-win regression Developing estimate
Air Force enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNavy at Air Force
Week 5 · Oct 3Falcon Stadium · Colorado Springs, CO
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Air Force -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Air Force -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusAir Force -311-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Air Force -311-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward Air ForceExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Revenge game Developing estimate
Air Force lost the most recent meeting with Navy.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Navy enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Navy was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Navy enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Navy enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Navy is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Navy 9 · Air Force 14
- Pregame OV Line
- Air Force -0.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Air Force -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Air Force by 5
Observed 3h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineAir Force -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Air Force -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusAir Force -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Air Force -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Navy 47.8%Air Force 52.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Air Force -3
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