Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Air Force is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNorth Dakota State at Air Force
Week 2 · Sep 12Falcon Stadium · Colorado Springs, CO
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
North Dakota State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Dakota State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -2.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
North Dakota State -2.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward North Dakota StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
North Dakota State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
North Dakota State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
North Dakota State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
North Dakota State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
North Dakota State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 445 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?North Dakota State 38 · Air Force 32
- Pregame OV Line
- North Dakota State 0
- Final recorded market
- North Dakota State -2.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- North Dakota State by 6
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNorth Dakota State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Dakota State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -5Based on 2 books
North Dakota State -5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
North Dakota State 50.3%Air Force 49.7%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · North Dakota State -2.5
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