Offense#137
-13.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.01 #131 FBSSuccess rate32.8% #135 FBS
Mountain West · #130 of 138
UTEP
Implied Strength-18.8vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility8%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule79thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat MichiganWeek 3 · OV Line UTEP +36.5 · <0.01% win chance →Toughest remaining test#19 MichiganWeek 3 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 7.4 rating points.
Defense#106
-5.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.10 #43 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.9% #41 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How UTEP's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 3–9 (3.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 3 winsCentral 80% 2–5 winsBowl eligible 8.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
<0.01% of prior-year PPA returns, placing UTEP in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production-1.1%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class85thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production130thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover
UTEP at Oklahoma · Norman, OK · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
UTEP through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS25%3–9 against consensus
Average line gap2.4 pts67% inside 3 points · 8 of 12
Factor coverage42%5 of 12 games
Factor signals40% aligned2 of 5 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in UTEP games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 6.1 pts toward UTEP | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.5 pts toward UTEP | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at DelawareAway | UTEP +5.5 | UTEP +4.5 | 1.2 pts toward UTEP | None identified | 1.2 pts toward UTEP | L 31–61 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. New Mexico StateHome | UTEP -5.5 | UTEP -4 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Missouri StateAway | UTEP +6 | UTEP +6.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 24–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Jacksonville StateHome | UTEP -0.5 | UTEP +1.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 27–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Kennesaw StateAway | UTEP +7 | UTEP +12.5 | 5.4 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward UTEP | 6.9 pts toward opponents | L 20–33 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Sam HoustonNeutral | UTEP -4 | UTEP -3.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward UTEP | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 35–17 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. LibertyHome | UTEP +2 | UTEP +1.5 | 0.3 pts toward UTEP | None identified | 0.3 pts toward UTEP | L 8–19 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Louisiana TechHome | UTEP -1.5 | UTEP +3.5 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.8 pts toward opponents | L 11–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. UL MonroeHome | UTEP -10.5 | UTEP -5.5 | 5.2 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward opponents | L 25–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at TexasAway | UTEP +40.5 | UTEP +39.5 | 0.9 pts toward UTEP | 6.1 pts toward UTEP | 5.2 pts toward opponents | L 10–27 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. UT MartinHome | UTEP -2 | UTEP -7.5 | 5.6 pts toward UTEP | None identified | 5.6 pts toward UTEP | W 42–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at Utah StateAway | UTEP +5.5 | UTEP +4.5 | 1.1 pts toward UTEP | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward UTEP | L 16–28 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.