Hawai'i at UTEP

Week 10 · Nov 7Sun Bowl · El Paso, TX

Matchup View

Opening LineHawai'i -10Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusHawai'i -9.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineHawai'i -10Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Hawai'iOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineHawai'i -11.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward UTEPExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineHawai'i -10Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Hawai'iOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Hawai'i -11.5Opening Market ConsensusHawai'i -9.5Unexplained at open~2 pts toward UTEPSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Hawai'i -11.5Current Market ConsensusHawai'i -9.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward UTEPExplore similar gaps Hawai'i has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Hawai'i

Hawai'i has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Hawai'i

Hawai'i has 6.7 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Hawai'i; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

UTEP enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

UTEP enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

UTEP enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

UTEP enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

UTEP has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

UTEP is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Hawai'i enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Hawai'i has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Hawai'i is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i faces materially stronger North Dakota State in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

Hawai'i is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger North Dakota State.

Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Hawai'i 77.4%UTEP 22.6%

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Compare Teams

Hawai'iVSUTEP

Model View

Overall Rating-10.8 · #103-23.2 · #137
Offense Rating-4.7-15.3
Defense Rating-6.1-7.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.01
Offense Success Rate41.0%32.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.160.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.9%38.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.03.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank126th77th