Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Michigan was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUTEP at Michigan
Week 3 · Sep 19Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI
Matchup View
Opening Line
Michigan -36.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Michigan -36.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusMichigan -35.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Michigan -35.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward UTEPExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Michigan is favored by 35.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Michigan faces materially stronger Iowa in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Michigan is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Iowa.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
UTEP enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
UTEP enters after losing its previous lined game by 51 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
UTEP is a 35.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineMichigan -36.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Michigan -36.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMichigan -37Based on 2 books
Michigan -37Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
UTEP 0.2%Michigan 99.8%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Michigan -35.5
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