Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan faces materially stronger Michigan State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySan José State at Eastern Michigan
Week 1 · Sep 4Rynearson Stadium · Ypsilanti, MI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Eastern Michigan -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Eastern Michigan -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusEastern Michigan -111-book consensus · observed Sep 4, 6:15 PM EDT
Eastern Michigan -111-book consensus · observed Sep 4, 6:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward San José StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Completed gameWhat happened?San José State 27 · Eastern Michigan 21
- Pregame OV Line
- Eastern Michigan -4.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Eastern Michigan -1
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- San José State by 6
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineEastern Michigan -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Eastern Michigan -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusEastern Michigan -3.52-book consensus · CFBD fallback
Eastern Michigan -3.52-book consensus · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
San José State 38.2%Eastern Michigan 61.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Eastern Michigan -1
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