San José State at Hawai'i

Week 5 · Oct 3Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineHawai'i -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusHawai'i -311-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineHawai'i -2.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward San José StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineHawai'i -1Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineHawai'i -2.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward San José StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Hawai'i -1Opening Market ConsensusHawai'i -3Unexplained at open~2 pts toward Hawai'iSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Hawai'i -1Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusHawai'i -3Unexplained gap~2 pts toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps San José State has extra rest~1.5 pts toward San José State

San José State has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward San José State

San José State has 6.6 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward San José State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Hawai'i lost the most recent meeting with San José State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Hawai'i faces materially stronger Arizona State in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

San José State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

San José State enters after losing its previous lined game by 16 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

San José State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?San José State 20 · Hawai'i 16
Pregame OV Line
Hawai'i -2.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Hawai'i -3
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Hawai'i -1
Actual margin
San José State by 4

Observed 15h 31m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
San José State 41.7%Hawai'i 58.3%

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Compare Teams

San José StateVSHawai'i

Model View

Overall Rating-12.4 · #114-10.8 · #103
Offense Rating-5.9-4.7
Defense Rating-6.5-6.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.17
Offense Success Rate43.2%41.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.200.16
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.4%41.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.57.0
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank92nd126th