Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Hawai'i enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNew Mexico State at Hawai'i
Week 2 · Sep 12Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Hawai'i -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Hawai'i -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusHawai'i -7.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 11:45 PM EDT
Hawai'i -7.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 11:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~7 pts toward New Mexico StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Hawai'i enters after losing its previous lined game by 15 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Hawai'i enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 726 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Hawai'i is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 535 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Hawai'i.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?New Mexico State 19 · Hawai'i 29
- Pregame OV Line
- Hawai'i -14.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Hawai'i -7.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Hawai'i by 10
Observed 0h 13m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineHawai'i -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Hawai'i -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusHawai'i -10Earliest observed 9-book consensus
Hawai'i -10Earliest observed 9-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
New Mexico State 12.4%Hawai'i 87.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Hawai'i -7.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 12.