Hawai'i at Wyoming

Week 4 · Sep 26War Memorial Stadium · Laramie, WY
Hawai'i2–6-10.8 vs. avg · #103
@
Wyoming5–3-12.0 vs. avg · #110

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineWyoming -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusHawai'i -29-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 2:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineWyoming -2Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Hawai'iOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineWyoming -0.5Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineWyoming -2Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Hawai'iOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Wyoming -0.5Opening Market ConsensusHawai'i -3Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward Hawai'iSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Wyoming -0.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusHawai'i -2Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps Hawai'i has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Hawai'i

Hawai'i has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Hawai'i

Hawai'i has 6.5 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.6 points toward Hawai'i; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Hawai'i 10 · Wyoming 27
Pregame OV Line
Wyoming -2
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Hawai'i -2
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Wyoming -0.5
Actual margin
Wyoming by 17

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Hawai'i 44.3%Wyoming 55.7%

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Compare Teams

Hawai'iVSWyoming

Model View

Overall Rating-10.8 · #103-12.0 · #110
Offense Rating-4.7-9.2
Defense Rating-6.1-2.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.05
Offense Success Rate41.0%37.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.160.07
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.9%37.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.05.7
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank126th113th