Offense#126
-9.8vs. FBS average
Mid-American · #132 of 138
Sacramento State
Implied Strength-19.5vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record1–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility22%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule135thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. North Dakota StateWeek 3 · OV Line SAC +15 · 12% win chance →Toughest remaining test#77 North Dakota StateWeek 3 · 12% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#131
-9.8vs. FBS average
No 2025 FBS advanced-stats history for this team (reclassified from FCS) — shown as an even split of the overall rating.
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Sacramento State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (4.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 3–6 winsBowl eligible 22.4%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Sacramento State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
2026 Transfer Class42ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production132ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Mississippi Valley StateFCS
OV Win2%0Spread:SAC -27.5vs.SAC -38.5
1 FactorMississippi Valley State at Sacramento State · Sacramento, CA · Hornet Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Sacramento State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS100%2–0 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts50% inside 3 points · 1 of 2
Factor coverage0%0 of 2 games
Factor signals— aligned0 of 0 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample2 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Sacramento State games
No qualifying Explanatory Factors were identified in this historical sample.
Underlying recordInspect all 2 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W2 | at NevadaAway | Sacramento State +13.5 | Sacramento State +9 | 4.6 pts toward Sacramento State | None identified | 4.6 pts toward Sacramento State | L 17–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at StanfordAway | Sacramento State +4.5 | Sacramento State +7 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 30–23 | W | None identified |
Sample: 2 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.