Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOhio at Sacramento State
Week 7 · Oct 17Hornet Stadium · Sacramento, CA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Ohio -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ohio -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusOhio -15.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Ohio -15.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward OhioExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Sacramento State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State is a 15.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Sacramento State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Ohio is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Ohio is favored by 15.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Ohio faces materially stronger Eastern Michigan in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Ohio is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Eastern Michigan.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Ohio 48 · Sacramento State 7
- Pregame OV Line
- Ohio -14
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Ohio -15.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Ohio by 41
Observed 12h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineOhio -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ohio -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOhio -14Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Ohio -14Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Ohio 86.1%Sacramento State 13.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Ohio -15.5
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