Offense#107
-4.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.21 #40 FBSSuccess rate44.9% #40 FBS
Mid-American · #110 of 138
Ohio
Implied Strength-11.5vs. FBS average · ±3.5
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility87%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule132ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat South AlabamaWeek 3 · OV Line OHIO +3.5 · 39% win chance →Toughest remaining test#94 ToledoWeek 13 · 45% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.7 rating points.
Defense#116
-6.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.12 #57 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.2% #62 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Ohio's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 87.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title10.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production62.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class108thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production113thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.7Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Ohio at Nebraska · Lincoln, NE · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Ohio through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS55%6–5 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts55% inside 3 points · 6 of 11
Factor coverage64%7 of 11 games
Factor signals67% aligned4 of 6 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Ohio games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 0.9 pts toward Ohio | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W13 | vs. MassachusettsHome | Ohio -28.5 | Ohio -33.5 | 4.8 pts toward Ohio | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 8.5 pts toward Ohio | W 42–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at Western MichiganAway | Ohio -1 | Ohio +1.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 13–17 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Miami (OH)Home | Ohio -7 | Ohio -2.5 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.5 pts toward opponents | W 24–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Eastern MichiganAway | Ohio -9.5 | Ohio -12 | 2.6 pts toward Ohio | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Ohio | W 28–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Northern IllinoisHome | Ohio -12.5 | Ohio -10.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Ohio | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 48–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | at Ball StateAway | Ohio -14.5 | Ohio -14 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward Ohio | L 14–20 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Bowling GreenHome | Ohio -10.5 | Ohio -7.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 35–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Gardner-WebbHome | Ohio -30 | Ohio -30.5 | 0.7 pts toward Ohio | 1.5 pts toward Ohio | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 52–35 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at Ohio StateAway | Ohio +35.5 | Ohio +28.5 | 6.8 pts toward Ohio | 5.1 pts toward Ohio | 1.7 pts toward Ohio | L 9–37 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Ohio +13.5 | Ohio +3.5 | 10.0 pts toward Ohio | None identified | 10.0 pts toward Ohio | W 17–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at RutgersAway | Ohio +12.5 | Ohio +15.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 3.1 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.