Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
South Alabama enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOhio at South Alabama
Week 3 · Sep 19Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL
Matchup View
Opening Line
South Alabama -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Alabama -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusSouth Alabama -6.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
South Alabama -6.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward South AlabamaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
South Alabama enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
South Alabama is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
South Alabama lost the most recent meeting with Ohio.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
South Alabama faces materially stronger Kentucky in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Ohio enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineSouth Alabama -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Alabama -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Alabama -4Based on 2 books
South Alabama -4Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Ohio 38.8%South Alabama 61.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · South Alabama -6.5
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