Offense#24
+6.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.18 #55 FBSSuccess rate46.9% #19 FBS
Big Ten · #30 of 138
Nebraska
Implied Strength+10.8vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility84%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule25thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. North DakotaWeek 3 · OV Line NEB -23 · 92% win chance →Toughest remaining test#1 Ohio StateWeek 12 · 11% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 2.0 rating points.
Defense#38
+4.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #95 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.6% #89 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Nebraska's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.9 expected wins), with a 3% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 83.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
2.9%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached2.9% total
Auto-bid0.2%
At-large2.7%
Outside field97.1%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Nebraska. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production46.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class73rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production57thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Ohio at Nebraska · Lincoln, NE · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Nebraska through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS44%18–23–3 against consensus
Average line gap3.0 pts57% inside 3 points · 25 of 44
Factor coverage32%14 of 44 games
Factor signals71% aligned10 of 14 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Nebraska games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 0.3 pts toward Nebraska | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. IowaHome | Nebraska +1.5 | Nebraska +5.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | L 16–40 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Penn StateAway | Nebraska +10 | Nebraska +7 | 2.8 pts toward Nebraska | 1.7 pts toward Nebraska | 1.1 pts toward Nebraska | L 10–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at UCLAAway | Nebraska -8.5 | Nebraska +2 | 10.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 9.7 pts toward opponents | W 28–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. USCHome | Nebraska +5.5 | Nebraska +4.5 | 1.1 pts toward Nebraska | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Nebraska | L 17–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Nebraska -13.5 | Nebraska -7 | 6.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.6 pts toward opponents | W 28–21 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at MinnesotaAway | Nebraska -6 | Nebraska -7 | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | L 6–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at MarylandAway | Nebraska -10 | Nebraska -7 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 34–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Nebraska -18 | Nebraska -12.5 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.3 pts toward opponents | W 38–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. MichiganHome | Nebraska -4.5 | Nebraska +1.5 | 5.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.8 pts toward opponents | L 27–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Houston ChristianHome | Nebraska -49 | Nebraska -48.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward Nebraska | W 59–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. AkronHome | Nebraska -35 | Nebraska -34 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward Nebraska | W 68–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. CincinnatiNeutral | Nebraska -6 | Nebraska -6 | 0.1 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Nebraska | W 20–17 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at IowaAway | Nebraska +7.5 | Nebraska +3 | 4.4 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 4.4 pts toward Nebraska | L 10–13 | P | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. WisconsinHome | Nebraska -3.5 | Nebraska -1.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 44–25 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at USCAway | Nebraska +11 | Nebraska +6.5 | 4.3 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Nebraska | L 20–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. UCLAHome | Nebraska -10.5 | Nebraska -7.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 20–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at Ohio StateAway | Nebraska +27.5 | Nebraska +25 | 2.6 pts toward Nebraska | 1.7 pts toward Nebraska | 0.9 pts toward Nebraska | L 17–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | at IndianaAway | Nebraska +7 | Nebraska +6.5 | 0.5 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Nebraska | L 7–56 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. RutgersHome | Nebraska -7 | Nebraska -6.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 14–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at PurdueAway | Nebraska -10 | Nebraska -10 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 28–10 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. IllinoisHome | Nebraska -10.5 | Nebraska -9 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. Northern IowaHome | Nebraska -34.5 | Nebraska -30.5 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward Nebraska | 4.6 pts toward opponents | W 34–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. ColoradoHome | Nebraska -18 | Nebraska -6.5 | 11.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 11.5 pts toward opponents | W 28–10 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. IowaHome | Nebraska +0.5 | Nebraska -3 | 3.6 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Nebraska | L 10–13 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at WisconsinAway | Nebraska +7.5 | Nebraska +7 | 0.7 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Nebraska | L 17–24 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. MarylandHome | Nebraska +4.5 | Nebraska +1.5 | 3.0 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Nebraska | L 10–13 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at Michigan StateAway | Nebraska -2 | Nebraska -3 | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | L 17–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. PurdueHome | Nebraska -0.5 | Nebraska +1 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Nebraska | W 31–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Nebraska -10 | Nebraska -10.5 | 0.6 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Nebraska | W 17–9 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at IllinoisAway | Nebraska +4 | Nebraska +3 | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | W 20–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. MichiganHome | Nebraska +21.5 | Nebraska +17 | 4.7 pts toward Nebraska | 2.2 pts toward Nebraska | 2.5 pts toward Nebraska | L 7–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | at ColoradoAway | Nebraska -5 | Nebraska +3 | 7.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.8 pts toward opponents | L 14–36 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | at MinnesotaAway | Nebraska +8 | Nebraska +7.5 | 0.5 pts toward Nebraska | No net direction | 0.5 pts toward Nebraska | L 10–13 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W13 | at IowaAway | Nebraska +15 | Nebraska +10.5 | 4.3 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Nebraska | W 24–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. WisconsinHome | Nebraska +12.5 | Nebraska +10 | 2.6 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Nebraska | L 14–15 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at MichiganAway | Nebraska +30 | Nebraska +30.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward Nebraska | 4.2 pts toward opponents | L 3–34 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Nebraska +10.5 | Nebraska +14.5 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 13–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. IllinoisHome | Nebraska +7.5 | Nebraska +7.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 9–26 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at PurdueAway | Nebraska +12.5 | Nebraska +14 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 37–43 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at RutgersAway | Nebraska -3.5 | Nebraska -3 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 14–13 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. IndianaHome | Nebraska -3 | Nebraska -6.5 | 3.5 pts toward Nebraska | 1.1 pts toward Nebraska | 2.4 pts toward Nebraska | W 35–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. OklahomaHome | Nebraska +17.5 | Nebraska +10.5 | 7.0 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 7.0 pts toward Nebraska | L 14–49 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. North DakotaHome | Nebraska -23.5 | Nebraska -28.5 | 5.0 pts toward Nebraska | 1.1 pts toward Nebraska | 3.9 pts toward Nebraska | W 38–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. NorthwesternNeutral | Nebraska -11 | Nebraska -12.5 | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Nebraska | L 28–31 | L | None identified |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.