Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Nebraska enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBowling Green at Nebraska
Week 2 · Sep 12Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Lincoln, NE
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Nebraska -26.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Nebraska -26.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNebraska -29.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Nebraska -29.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward NebraskaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Nebraska enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Nebraska is favored by 29.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Nebraska begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green is a 29.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Bowling Green 7 · Nebraska 56
- Pregame OV Line
- Nebraska -26.5
- Final recorded market
- Nebraska -29.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Nebraska by 49
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNebraska -26.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Nebraska -26.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNebraska -27.5Based on 2 books
Nebraska -27.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Bowling Green 1.8%Nebraska 98.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Nebraska -29.5
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