Offense#3
+14.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.34 #5 FBSSuccess rate51.3% #3 FBS
Big Ten · #2 of 138
Indiana
Implied Strength+28.4vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds78%make the 12-team field
Conference Title34%win Big Ten
Strength of Schedule38thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Western KentuckyWeek 3 · OV Line IU -43 · >99.9% win chance →Toughest remaining test#1 Ohio StateWeek 7 · 57% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#1
+14.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.01 #7 FBSSuccess rate allowed34.4% #6 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Indiana's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 11–1 (10.6 expected wins), and the playoff is more likely than not at 78%. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 11 winsCentral 80% 9–12 winsBowl eligible >99.9%Undefeated 23.4%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
77.8%Make the 12-team field
More likely than not across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached77.8% total
Auto-bid34.2%
At-large43.5%
Outside field22.2%
Conference title34.2%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
17% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Indiana in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Indiana ranks 9th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production16.6%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class78thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production9thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total10.3Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
North Texas at Indiana · Bloomington, IN · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Indiana through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS60%27–18 against consensus
Average line gap2.7 pts62% inside 3 points · 28 of 45
Factor coverage56%25 of 45 games
Factor signals71% aligned20 of 28 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Indiana games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 17 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 65%11 of 17 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 8 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 88%7 of 8 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 2 | 1.3 pts toward Indiana | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. Ohio StateNeutral | Indiana +1 | Indiana +3.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward Indiana | 4.3 pts toward opponents | W 13–10 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W14 | at PurdueAway | Indiana -28 | Indiana -28.5 | 0.6 pts toward Indiana | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 4.2 pts toward Indiana | W 56–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. WisconsinHome | Indiana -31.5 | Indiana -28 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Indiana | W 31–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W11 | at Penn StateAway | Indiana -7 | Indiana -14 | 7.2 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 7.2 pts toward Indiana | W 27–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at MarylandAway | Indiana -22.5 | Indiana -21 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward Indiana | W 55–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. UCLAHome | Indiana -27.5 | Indiana -27.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward Indiana | W 56–6 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Indiana -27 | Indiana -26.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward Indiana | W 38–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W7 | at OregonAway | Indiana +5 | Indiana +7 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 30–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at IowaAway | Indiana -10 | Indiana -9.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 20–15 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. IllinoisHome | Indiana -9 | Indiana -7 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 63–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Indiana StateHome | Indiana -52.5 | Indiana -47.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | 4.4 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 73–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Kennesaw StateHome | Indiana -34 | Indiana -35.5 | 1.7 pts toward Indiana | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 6.5 pts toward Indiana | W 56–9 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Old DominionHome | Indiana -21.5 | Indiana -23.5 | 2.2 pts toward Indiana | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 3.8 pts toward Indiana | W 27–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. PurdueHome | Indiana -31 | Indiana -28.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Indiana | W 66–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W13 | at Ohio StateAway | Indiana +15.5 | Indiana +10.5 | 5.2 pts toward Indiana | 1.7 pts toward Indiana | 3.5 pts toward Indiana | L 15–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. MichiganHome | Indiana -11 | Indiana -14.5 | 3.5 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 3.5 pts toward Indiana | W 20–15 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at Michigan StateAway | Indiana -8 | Indiana -7.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 47–10 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. WashingtonHome | Indiana -10.5 | Indiana -5.5 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 31–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. NebraskaHome | Indiana -7 | Indiana -6.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 56–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. NorthwesternNeutral | Indiana -13 | Indiana -12.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 41–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. MarylandHome | Indiana -10.5 | Indiana -7.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 42–28 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | at UCLAAway | Indiana -15.5 | Indiana -3.5 | 12.0 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 11.1 pts toward opponents | W 42–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Western IllinoisHome | Indiana -45 | Indiana -44.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward Indiana | W 77–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | at PurdueAway | Indiana +5 | Indiana +6.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 31–35 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Indiana -2.5 | Indiana -3.5 | 1.2 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Indiana | L 21–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at IllinoisAway | Indiana +7.5 | Indiana +4.5 | 3.1 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Indiana | L 45–48 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. WisconsinHome | Indiana +13 | Indiana +9.5 | 3.6 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Indiana | W 20–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at Penn StateAway | Indiana +34.5 | Indiana +31 | 3.6 pts toward Indiana | 3.7 pts toward Indiana | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 24–33 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. RutgersHome | Indiana +7.5 | Indiana +6 | 1.3 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Indiana | L 14–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at MichiganAway | Indiana +32.5 | Indiana +33.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 5.3 pts toward Indiana | 6.1 pts toward opponents | L 7–52 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | at MarylandAway | Indiana +15 | Indiana +14 | 0.8 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Indiana | L 17–44 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. LouisvilleNeutral | Indiana +16.5 | Indiana +10 | 6.3 pts toward Indiana | 1.0 pts toward Indiana | 5.2 pts toward Indiana | L 14–21 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. Indiana StateHome | Indiana -25 | Indiana -31 | 5.9 pts toward Indiana | 1.5 pts toward Indiana | 4.4 pts toward Indiana | W 41–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Indiana +26.5 | Indiana +30 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Indiana | 4.2 pts toward opponents | L 3–23 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. PurdueHome | Indiana +10.5 | Indiana +10 | 0.6 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Indiana | L 16–30 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at Michigan StateAway | Indiana +11 | Indiana +12 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 39–31 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at Ohio StateAway | Indiana +41 | Indiana +40 | 1.0 pts toward Indiana | 5.5 pts toward Indiana | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 14–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Penn StateHome | Indiana +19 | Indiana +13.5 | 5.7 pts toward Indiana | 1.1 pts toward Indiana | 4.6 pts toward Indiana | L 14–45 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | at RutgersAway | Indiana +0.5 | Indiana +3 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 17–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. MarylandHome | Indiana +11.5 | Indiana +11 | 0.5 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Indiana | L 33–38 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. MichiganHome | Indiana +25.5 | Indiana +23.5 | 1.9 pts toward Indiana | 2.9 pts toward Indiana | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 10–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W5 | at NebraskaAway | Indiana +3 | Indiana +6.5 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward opponents | L 21–35 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W4 | at CincinnatiAway | Indiana +11 | Indiana +16.5 | 5.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.6 pts toward opponents | L 24–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. IdahoHome | Indiana -29.5 | Indiana -24.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Indiana | 5.8 pts toward opponents | W 35–22 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. IllinoisHome | Indiana 0 | Indiana -1 | 0.9 pts toward Indiana | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Indiana | W 23–20 | W | None identified |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.