Close-win regression Developing estimate
Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIndiana at Michigan
Week 8 · Oct 24Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Indiana -10.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -10.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusIndiana -711-book consensus · observed Oct 23, 12:43 PM EDT
Indiana -711-book consensus · observed Oct 23, 12:43 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward MichiganExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Michigan has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Michigan is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Indiana.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Michigan is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Indiana enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Indiana enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Indiana is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Indiana is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Indiana begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Indiana ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Indiana is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Indiana 13 · Michigan 6
- Pregame OV Line
- Indiana -10.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Indiana -7
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Indiana by 7
Observed 23h 16m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineIndiana -10.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -10.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIndiana -9Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Indiana -9Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Indiana 79.1%Michigan 20.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Indiana -7
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