Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Michigan was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIndiana at Michigan
Week 8 · Oct 24Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI
Matchup View
Opening Line
Indiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusIndiana -61-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Indiana -61-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward MichiganExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Michigan is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Indiana.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Michigan is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Indiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Indiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Indiana is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Indiana begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Indiana ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Indiana is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineIndiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIndiana -6Based on 1 book
Indiana -6Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Indiana 80.1%Michigan 19.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Indiana -6
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 24.