Close-win regression Developing estimate
Indiana enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUSC at Indiana
Week 11 · Nov 14Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Bloomington, IN
Matchup View
Opening Line
Indiana -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Single-Book LineIndiana -10Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM EST
Indiana -10Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward IndianaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Indiana has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Indiana begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Indiana ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
USC was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
USC begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
USC ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineIndiana -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIndiana -10Single-book line · CFBD fallback
Indiana -10Single-book line · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
USC 24.0%Indiana 76.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Indiana -10
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