Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Indiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUSC at Indiana
Week 11 · Nov 14Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Bloomington, IN
Matchup View
Opening Line
Indiana -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusIndiana -101-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Indiana -101-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward USCExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Indiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Indiana begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Indiana ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
USC has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
USC begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
USC ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineIndiana -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIndiana -10Based on 1 book
Indiana -10Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
USC 16.7%Indiana 83.3%
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Market consensus · Indiana -10
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