Offense#52
+2.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.10 #105 FBSSuccess rate39.9% #102 FBS
Big Ten · #46 of 138
Minnesota
Implied Strength+5.8vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility38%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule24thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. AkronWeek 3 · OV Line MINN -27.5 · 98% win chance →Toughest remaining test#2 IndianaWeek 9 · 2% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#46
+3.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.15 #69 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.5% #85 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Minnesota's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.1 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 37.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.1% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large0.1%
Outside field99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Minnesota. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production64.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class67thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production66thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.0Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered
Eastern Illinois at Minnesota · Minneapolis, MN · Huntington Bank Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Minnesota through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS47%20–23 against consensus
Average line gap2.6 pts65% inside 3 points · 28 of 43
Factor coverage37%16 of 43 games
Factor signals63% aligned10 of 16 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample43 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Minnesota games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 8 | 0.7 pts toward Minnesota | 63%5 of 8 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 57%4 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 43 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. WisconsinHome | Minnesota -3.5 | Minnesota +2.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.0 pts toward opponents | W 17–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. NorthwesternNeutral | Minnesota +0.5 | Minnesota +4 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward opponents | L 35–38 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W12 | at OregonAway | Minnesota +26.5 | Minnesota +26.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 5.2 pts toward Minnesota | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 13–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Minnesota -8 | Minnesota -4.5 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.7 pts toward opponents | W 23–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at IowaAway | Minnesota +13 | Minnesota +7.5 | 5.5 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 5.5 pts toward Minnesota | L 3–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. NebraskaHome | Minnesota +6 | Minnesota +7 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 24–6 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. PurdueHome | Minnesota -9.5 | Minnesota -7.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 27–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at Ohio StateAway | Minnesota +23 | Minnesota +23.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Minnesota | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 3–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. RutgersHome | Minnesota -5.5 | Minnesota -3.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward Minnesota | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at CaliforniaAway | Minnesota -8 | Minnesota -3 | 5.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.0 pts toward opponents | L 14–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Northwestern StateHome | Minnesota -57.5 | Minnesota -43 | 14.6 pts toward opponents | 6.8 pts toward opponents | 7.9 pts toward opponents | W 66–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | at WisconsinAway | Minnesota +2 | Minnesota -1.5 | 3.4 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 3.4 pts toward Minnesota | W 24–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. Penn StateHome | Minnesota +12.5 | Minnesota +11 | 1.3 pts toward Minnesota | 1.1 pts toward Minnesota | 0.2 pts toward Minnesota | L 25–26 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | at RutgersAway | Minnesota -4 | Minnesota -6.5 | 2.3 pts toward Minnesota | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward Minnesota | L 19–26 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | at IllinoisAway | Minnesota +1 | Minnesota -2.5 | 3.4 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 3.4 pts toward Minnesota | W 25–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. MarylandHome | Minnesota -3.5 | Minnesota -6 | 2.5 pts toward Minnesota | 1.1 pts toward Minnesota | 1.5 pts toward Minnesota | W 48–23 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | at UCLAAway | Minnesota -4.5 | Minnesota -3.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 21–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. USCHome | Minnesota +10 | Minnesota +8.5 | 1.6 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Minnesota | W 24–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at MichiganAway | Minnesota +10.5 | Minnesota +10.5 | 0.2 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Minnesota | L 24–27 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. IowaHome | Minnesota +0.5 | Minnesota +3 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | L 14–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Rhode IslandHome | Minnesota -26.5 | Minnesota -27.5 | 1.0 pts toward Minnesota | 1.3 pts toward Minnesota | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 48–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Minnesota +1 | Minnesota +1.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 17–19 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. WisconsinHome | Minnesota +3.5 | Minnesota +2.5 | 1.4 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Minnesota | L 14–28 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Ohio StateAway | Minnesota +26.5 | Minnesota +27.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward Minnesota | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 3–37 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W11 | at PurdueAway | Minnesota -1.5 | Minnesota -1.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 30–49 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. IllinoisHome | Minnesota -5.5 | Minnesota -2 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 26–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Minnesota -8.5 | Minnesota -6.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 27–12 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at IowaAway | Minnesota +8 | Minnesota +3.5 | 4.3 pts toward Minnesota | 1.7 pts toward Minnesota | 2.6 pts toward Minnesota | W 12–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. MichiganHome | Minnesota +17 | Minnesota +18.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 10–52 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at NorthwesternAway | Minnesota -6.5 | Minnesota -11.5 | 4.9 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Minnesota | L 34–37 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at North CarolinaAway | Minnesota +6.5 | Minnesota +7 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 13–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. NebraskaHome | Minnesota -8 | Minnesota -7.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 13–10 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W13 | at WisconsinAway | Minnesota +1 | Minnesota +3 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 23–16 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. IowaHome | Minnesota -5.5 | Minnesota -2 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.4 pts toward opponents | L 10–13 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Minnesota -19 | Minnesota -17 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 31–3 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at NebraskaAway | Minnesota -10.5 | Minnesota -14.5 | 4.0 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Minnesota | W 20–13 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. RutgersHome | Minnesota -18 | Minnesota -14 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 31–0 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at Penn StateAway | Minnesota +3 | Minnesota +5.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 17–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at IllinoisAway | Minnesota -3.5 | Minnesota -4.5 | 0.9 pts toward Minnesota | 1.8 pts toward Minnesota | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 14–26 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. PurdueHome | Minnesota -12 | Minnesota -9 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | L 10–20 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at Michigan StateAway | Minnesota -1.5 | Minnesota -3 | 1.3 pts toward Minnesota | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Minnesota | W 34–7 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. ColoradoHome | Minnesota -30.5 | Minnesota -28 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Minnesota | W 49–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Western IllinoisHome | Minnesota -43.5 | Minnesota -41 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 62–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 43 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.