Offense#25
+5.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.12 #96 FBSSuccess rate41.2% #81 FBS
Big Ten · #31 of 138
UCLA
Implied Strength+10.7vs. FBS average · ±3.6
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds10%make the 12-team field
Conference Title1%win Big Ten
Strength of Schedule47thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. PurdueWeek 3 · OV Line UCLA -15 · 88% win chance →Toughest remaining test#4 OregonWeek 6 · 6% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.1 rating points.
Defense#36
+4.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.26 #126 FBSSuccess rate allowed49.8% #135 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How UCLA's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 8–4 (7.9 expected wins), with a 10% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 8 winsCentral 80% 6–10 winsBowl eligible 94.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
10.4%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached10.4% total
Auto-bid0.6%
At-large9.8%
Outside field89.6%
Conference title0.6%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production57.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class5thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production72ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.3Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
UCLA at California · Berkeley, CA · California Memorial Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
UCLA through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS45%19–23 against consensus
Average line gap3.0 pts60% inside 3 points · 25 of 42
Factor coverage29%12 of 42 games
Factor signals83% aligned10 of 12 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample42 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in UCLA games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 2.0 pts toward UCLA | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | No net direction | 100%5 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 42 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at USCAway | UCLA +23.5 | UCLA +21.5 | 1.8 pts toward UCLA | 3.0 pts toward UCLA | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 10–29 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. WashingtonHome | UCLA +12 | UCLA +10.5 | 1.4 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 1.4 pts toward UCLA | L 14–48 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Ohio StateAway | UCLA +34 | UCLA +33 | 0.9 pts toward UCLA | 4.8 pts toward UCLA | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 10–48 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. NebraskaHome | UCLA +8.5 | UCLA -2 | 10.7 pts toward UCLA | 1.1 pts toward UCLA | 9.7 pts toward UCLA | L 21–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at IndianaAway | UCLA +27.5 | UCLA +27.5 | 0.2 pts toward UCLA | 3.6 pts toward UCLA | 3.4 pts toward opponents | L 6–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. MarylandHome | UCLA -0.5 | UCLA -4 | 3.5 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 3.5 pts toward UCLA | W 20–17 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Michigan StateAway | UCLA +9 | UCLA +7 | 1.8 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 1.8 pts toward UCLA | W 38–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Penn StateHome | UCLA +25.5 | UCLA +24.5 | 1.1 pts toward UCLA | 3.3 pts toward UCLA | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 42–37 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W5 | at NorthwesternAway | UCLA +5 | UCLA +6 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 14–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. New MexicoHome | UCLA -20 | UCLA -15.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 10–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at UNLVAway | UCLA -1 | UCLA -2.5 | 1.6 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 1.6 pts toward UCLA | L 23–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. UtahHome | UCLA +4.5 | UCLA +6.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 10–43 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. USCHome | UCLA +9 | UCLA +4.5 | 4.4 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 4.4 pts toward UCLA | L 13–19 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at WashingtonAway | UCLA +9 | UCLA +5 | 4.2 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 4.2 pts toward UCLA | L 19–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. IowaHome | UCLA +10 | UCLA +6.5 | 3.4 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 3.4 pts toward UCLA | W 20–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at NebraskaAway | UCLA +10.5 | UCLA +7.5 | 3.2 pts toward UCLA | 1.7 pts toward UCLA | 1.4 pts toward UCLA | W 27–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | at RutgersAway | UCLA +8.5 | UCLA +4.5 | 4.1 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 4.1 pts toward UCLA | W 35–32 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. MinnesotaHome | UCLA +4.5 | UCLA +3.5 | 1.0 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 1.0 pts toward UCLA | L 17–21 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at Penn StateAway | UCLA +26.5 | UCLA +29.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward UCLA | 5.6 pts toward opponents | L 11–27 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. OregonHome | UCLA +20.5 | UCLA +23.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 13–34 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W4 | at LSUAway | UCLA +21 | UCLA +21.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 17–34 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. IndianaHome | UCLA +15.5 | UCLA +3.5 | 12.0 pts toward UCLA | 0.9 pts toward UCLA | 11.1 pts toward UCLA | L 13–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. CaliforniaHome | UCLA -11.5 | UCLA -9.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 7–33 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at USCAway | UCLA +9.5 | UCLA +5 | 4.7 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 4.7 pts toward UCLA | W 38–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. Arizona StateHome | UCLA -18.5 | UCLA -14 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 7–17 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at ArizonaAway | UCLA -3 | UCLA -2.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 10–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. ColoradoHome | UCLA -16 | UCLA -14 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | No net direction | W 28–16 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | at StanfordAway | UCLA -19.5 | UCLA -17 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | W 42–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at Oregon StateAway | UCLA +4.5 | UCLA +3.5 | 0.8 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 0.8 pts toward UCLA | L 24–36 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. Washington StateHome | UCLA -7 | UCLA -3.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 25–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at UtahAway | UCLA -4 | UCLA +3 | 7.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.1 pts toward opponents | L 7–14 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. North Carolina CentralHome | UCLA -38 | UCLA -35 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward UCLA | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 59–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at CaliforniaAway | UCLA -10 | UCLA -11.5 | 1.3 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 1.3 pts toward UCLA | W 35–28 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. USCHome | UCLA +3.5 | UCLA +2.5 | 1.1 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 1.1 pts toward UCLA | L 45–48 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. ArizonaHome | UCLA -15.5 | UCLA -20 | 4.7 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 4.7 pts toward UCLA | L 28–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at Arizona StateAway | UCLA -11 | UCLA -11 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 50–36 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. StanfordHome | UCLA -12 | UCLA -16.5 | 4.5 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 4.5 pts toward UCLA | W 38–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at OregonAway | UCLA +5.5 | UCLA +7 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 30–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. UtahHome | UCLA +8.5 | UCLA +3 | 5.3 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 5.3 pts toward UCLA | W 42–32 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. WashingtonHome | UCLA +1.5 | UCLA +2.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 40–32 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at ColoradoAway | UCLA -14.5 | UCLA -22 | 7.6 pts toward UCLA | None identified | 7.6 pts toward UCLA | W 45–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Alabama StateHome | UCLA -49 | UCLA -48.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward UCLA | W 45–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 42 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.