Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
UCLA enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySan Diego State at UCLA
Week 2 · Sep 12Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
UCLA -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UCLA -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusUCLA -13.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 7:00 PM EDT
UCLA -13.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 7:00 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~6 pts toward UCLAExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
UCLA enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
UCLA begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
San Diego State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 445 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
San Diego State lost the most recent meeting with UCLA.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
San Diego State lost the most recent meeting with UCLA by at least 14 points.
Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?San Diego State 10 · UCLA 28
- Pregame OV Line
- UCLA -7.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- UCLA -13.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- UCLA by 18
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineUCLA -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UCLA -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUCLA -11Earliest observed 10-book consensus
UCLA -11Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
San Diego State 28.0%UCLA 72.0%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · UCLA -13.5
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