Wisconsin at UCLA

Week 7 · Oct 17Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineUCLA -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusUCLA -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUCLA -6.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward WisconsinOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUCLA -5Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward WisconsinExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUCLA -6.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward WisconsinOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UCLA -5Opening Market ConsensusUCLA -3.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward WisconsinSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)UCLA -5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusUCLA -2.5Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward WisconsinExplore similar gaps Wisconsin has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Wisconsin

Wisconsin has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Wisconsin

Wisconsin has 6.8 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Wisconsin; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

UCLA was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

UCLA enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

UCLA has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

UCLA has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

UCLA begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Wisconsin enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Wisconsin enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Wisconsin has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Wisconsin has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Wisconsin begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Wisconsin 7 · UCLA 17
Pregame OV Line
UCLA -6.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
UCLA -2.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
UCLA -5
Actual margin
UCLA by 10

Observed 10h 27m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Wisconsin 31.1%UCLA 68.9%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 17.

Compare Teams

WisconsinVSUCLA

Model View

Overall Rating+12.3 · #33+14.2 · #24
Offense Rating+4.3+7.7
Defense Rating+8.0+6.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.020.12
Offense Success Rate36.6%41.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.170.26
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.8%49.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.56.3
Playoff Odds4.0%62.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank41st54th