Offense#34
+4.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.21 #39 FBSSuccess rate47.5% #15 FBS
Big Ten · #40 of 138
Illinois
Implied Strength+7.5vs. FBS average · ±3.2
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility58%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule34thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Southern IllinoisWeek 3 · OV Line ILL -25.5 · 95% win chance →Toughest remaining test#1 Ohio StateWeek 4 · 3% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.8 rating points.
Defense#48
+2.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #98 FBSSuccess rate allowed45.0% #122 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Illinois's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 58.4%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.5%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.5% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large0.4%
Outside field99.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Illinois. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production21.1%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class62ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production36thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.0Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover
UAB at Illinois · Champaign, IL · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Illinois through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS58%25–18–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.1 pts59% inside 3 points · 26 of 44
Factor coverage32%14 of 44 games
Factor signals86% aligned12 of 14 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Illinois games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.1 pts toward Illinois | 100%7 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 6 | 0.8 pts toward Illinois | 67%4 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.2 pts toward Illinois | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Illinois -12 | Illinois -7 | 5.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.2 pts toward opponents | W 20–13 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at WisconsinAway | Illinois -8 | Illinois -8.5 | 0.3 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Illinois | L 10–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. MarylandHome | Illinois -16 | Illinois -16.5 | 0.6 pts toward Illinois | 1.1 pts toward Illinois | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 24–6 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. RutgersHome | Illinois -13 | Illinois -13 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 35–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at WashingtonAway | Illinois +4 | Illinois +3.5 | 0.5 pts toward Illinois | 1.7 pts toward Illinois | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 25–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Illinois +11.5 | Illinois +15 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 16–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at PurdueAway | Illinois -12.5 | Illinois -7 | 5.6 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.5 pts toward opponents | W 43–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. USCHome | Illinois +4.5 | Illinois +6.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 34–32 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at IndianaAway | Illinois +9 | Illinois +7 | 1.8 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Illinois | L 10–63 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Western MichiganHome | Illinois -33.5 | Illinois -27.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | 4.7 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 38–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | at DukeAway | Illinois -11.5 | Illinois -2.5 | 8.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.9 pts toward opponents | W 45–19 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Western IllinoisHome | Illinois -43 | Illinois -48.5 | 5.6 pts toward Illinois | 1.2 pts toward Illinois | 4.4 pts toward Illinois | W 52–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. NorthwesternNeutral | Illinois -7 | Illinois -9 | 1.8 pts toward Illinois | 1.2 pts toward Illinois | 0.6 pts toward Illinois | W 38–28 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W13 | at RutgersAway | Illinois +1.5 | Illinois +2.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 38–31 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Illinois -4.5 | Illinois -2 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 38–16 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Illinois -1 | Illinois +2.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.4 pts toward opponents | L 17–25 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at OregonAway | Illinois +22 | Illinois +22.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Illinois | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 9–38 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. MichiganHome | Illinois +2 | Illinois +6 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 21–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. PurdueHome | Illinois -14.5 | Illinois -22.5 | 8.0 pts toward Illinois | 1.0 pts toward Illinois | 7.0 pts toward Illinois | W 50–49 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | at Penn StateAway | Illinois +19 | Illinois +19.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 7–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at NebraskaAway | Illinois +10.5 | Illinois +9 | 1.7 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Illinois | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. KansasHome | Illinois -1 | Illinois +4.5 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.5 pts toward opponents | W 23–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Eastern IllinoisHome | Illinois -26 | Illinois -28.5 | 2.4 pts toward Illinois | 2.5 pts toward Illinois | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 45–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Illinois -6 | Illinois -5.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 43–45 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at IowaAway | Illinois +7 | Illinois +3 | 4.0 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Illinois | L 13–15 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. IndianaHome | Illinois -7.5 | Illinois -4.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 48–45 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at MinnesotaAway | Illinois +5.5 | Illinois +2 | 3.3 pts toward Illinois | 1.8 pts toward Illinois | 1.6 pts toward Illinois | W 27–26 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. WisconsinHome | Illinois +10.5 | Illinois +3 | 7.5 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 7.5 pts toward Illinois | L 21–25 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at MarylandAway | Illinois +13 | Illinois +13.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. NebraskaHome | Illinois -4 | Illinois -3 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at PurdueAway | Illinois +0.5 | Illinois +1 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 19–44 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. Penn StateHome | Illinois +25 | Illinois +14 | 10.9 pts toward Illinois | 2.5 pts toward Illinois | 8.4 pts toward Illinois | L 13–30 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | at KansasAway | Illinois +11 | Illinois +3.5 | 7.3 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 7.3 pts toward Illinois | L 23–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | at NorthwesternAway | Illinois -13.5 | Illinois -15 | 1.2 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Illinois | W 41–3 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at MichiganAway | Illinois +18 | Illinois +17 | 1.2 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Illinois | L 17–19 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. PurdueHome | Illinois -5 | Illinois -6 | 1.0 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Illinois | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Illinois -6.5 | Illinois -16 | 9.4 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 9.4 pts toward Illinois | L 15–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at NebraskaAway | Illinois -7.5 | Illinois -7.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 26–9 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Illinois +3.5 | Illinois +4.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward Illinois | W 26–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. IowaHome | Illinois -2 | Illinois -3.5 | 1.3 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Illinois | W 9–6 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at WisconsinAway | Illinois +14.5 | Illinois +6.5 | 8.0 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 8.0 pts toward Illinois | W 34–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. ChattanoogaHome | Illinois -22.5 | Illinois -20 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Illinois | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 31–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. VirginiaHome | Illinois -4 | Illinois -4 | 0.1 pts toward Illinois | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Illinois | W 24–3 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | at IndianaAway | Illinois 0 | Illinois +1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 20–23 | L | None identified |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.