High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Duke ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDuke at Illinois
Week 2 · Sep 12Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · Champaign, IL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Illinois -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Illinois -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusIllinois -6.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 3:15 PM EDT
Illinois -6.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 3:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward DukeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Revenge game Developing estimate
Duke lost the most recent meeting with Illinois.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Duke lost the most recent meeting with Illinois by at least 14 points.
Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Duke 31 · Illinois 27
- Pregame OV Line
- Illinois -7.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Illinois -6.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Duke by 4
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineIllinois -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Illinois -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIllinois -7.52-book consensus · CFBD fallback
Illinois -7.52-book consensus · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Duke 28.4%Illinois 71.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Illinois -6.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 12.