Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Northwestern is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIllinois at Northwestern
Week 13 · Nov 27Ryan Field · Evanston, IL
Matchup View
Opening Line
Northwestern -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Northwestern -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market Consensus
Illinois -3.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Illinois -3.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward IllinoisExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Revenge game Developing estimate
Northwestern lost the most recent meeting with Illinois.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Northwestern is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Illinois enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Illinois was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Illinois enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Illinois is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Illinois is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineNorthwestern -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Northwestern -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIllinois -3.5Based on 1 book
Illinois -3.5Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Illinois 48.5%Northwestern 51.5%
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Market consensus · Illinois -3.5
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