Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Northwestern enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIllinois at Northwestern
Week 13 · Nov 27Ryan Field · Evanston, IL
Matchup View
Opening Line
Northwestern -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Northwestern -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Single-Book Line
Illinois -3.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM EST
Illinois -3.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~13 pts toward IllinoisExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Northwestern enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Northwestern is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Northwestern begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Northwestern lost the most recent meeting with Illinois.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Northwestern is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Illinois enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Illinois has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Illinois is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineNorthwestern -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Northwestern -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIllinois -3.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback
Illinois -3.5Single-book line · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Illinois 23.8%Northwestern 76.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Illinois -3.5
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