Matchup View
Illinois -28.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Illinois -28.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26Comparable games put Illinois's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 48%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.9 points toward UAB (average-estimate range 1.1–3.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.
See the full studyThese conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Illinois is favored by 28.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIllinois faces materially stronger Duke in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIllinois is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Duke.
Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUAB is a 28.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyAlex Mortensen coached UAB's final 6 games last season as interim before beginning his first full season as head coach. Only 3 historical cases followed that path: 67% shaded toward the returning coach, averaging 0.3 points (median 1.3)—too few for a separate estimate. The broader 38-game study originally suggested a retained-coach difference, but the 24-game market-state revalidation centered near zero. We therefore identify the transition but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyThis preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Illinois -28.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Illinois -27.5Based on 2 booksComparable games put Illinois's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 48%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.9 points toward UAB (average-estimate range 1.1–3.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.
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Open until scheduled kickoffStraight-up winner
Market consensus · Illinois -28.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 3.
