Offense#1
+14.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.30 #12 FBSSuccess rate47.4% #16 FBS
Big Ten · #4 of 138
Oregon
Implied Strength+27.7vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record1–1through completed games
Playoff Odds49%make the 12-team field
Conference Title27%win Big Ten
Strength of Schedule13thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Portland StateWeek 3 · OV Line ORE -59 · >99.9% win chance →Toughest remaining test#1 Ohio StateWeek 10 · 39% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.5 rating points.
Defense#6
+13.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.04 #13 FBSSuccess rate allowed36.4% #15 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Oregon's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (9.4 expected wins), with a 49% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 10 winsCentral 80% 8–11 winsBowl eligible 99.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
49.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached49.1% total
Auto-bid27.1%
At-large22.0%
Outside field50.9%
Conference title27.1%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Oregon ranks 10th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production75.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class99thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production10thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total10.3Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Oregon through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS67%30–15–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts64% inside 3 points · 30 of 47
Factor coverage45%21 of 47 games
Factor signals63% aligned15 of 24 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample47 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Oregon games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 17 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 53%9 of 17 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 80%4 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 47 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at WashingtonAway | Oregon -9 | Oregon -6.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | W 26–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. USCHome | Oregon -11.5 | Oregon -11 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 42–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Oregon -26.5 | Oregon -26.5 | 0.2 pts toward Oregon | 5.2 pts toward opponents | 5.3 pts toward Oregon | W 42–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at IowaAway | Oregon -9 | Oregon -4.5 | 4.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.6 pts toward opponents | W 18–16 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. WisconsinHome | Oregon -29 | Oregon -31.5 | 2.3 pts toward Oregon | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 6.2 pts toward Oregon | W 21–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | at RutgersAway | Oregon -17 | Oregon -17.5 | 0.3 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Oregon | W 56–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. IndianaHome | Oregon -5 | Oregon -7 | 2.0 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Oregon | L 20–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Penn StateAway | Oregon -0.5 | Oregon +4 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 30–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Oregon -41 | Oregon -34 | 6.9 pts toward opponents | 6.2 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 41–7 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at NorthwesternAway | Oregon -34 | Oregon -25.5 | 8.7 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Oregon -34.5 | Oregon -28.5 | 6.2 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 69–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Montana StateHome | Oregon -31 | Oregon -28.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward Oregon | 5.2 pts toward opponents | W 59–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W15 | vs. Penn StateNeutral | Oregon -1 | Oregon -3.5 | 2.4 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Oregon | W 45–37 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. WashingtonHome | Oregon -19.5 | Oregon -17.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 49–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at WisconsinAway | Oregon -15 | Oregon -13.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 16–13 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. MarylandHome | Oregon -25.5 | Oregon -24 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Oregon | W 39–18 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | at MichiganAway | Oregon -13.5 | Oregon -14.5 | 1.0 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Oregon | W 38–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. IllinoisHome | Oregon -22 | Oregon -22.5 | 0.7 pts toward Oregon | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Oregon | W 38–9 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W8 | at PurdueAway | Oregon -27.5 | Oregon -29.5 | 2.1 pts toward Oregon | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Oregon | W 35–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Oregon +5.5 | Oregon +3.5 | 2.2 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Oregon | W 32–31 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Oregon -24 | Oregon -22.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Oregon | W 31–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W5 | at UCLAAway | Oregon -20.5 | Oregon -23.5 | 2.9 pts toward Oregon | 1.7 pts toward Oregon | 1.2 pts toward Oregon | W 34–13 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W3 | at Oregon StateAway | Oregon -5 | Oregon -18 | 13.2 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 13.2 pts toward Oregon | W 49–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W14 | vs. WashingtonNeutral | Oregon -6.5 | Oregon -9.5 | 2.8 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Oregon | L 31–34 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Oregon -12.5 | Oregon -14 | 1.3 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Oregon | W 31–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Arizona StateAway | Oregon -28.5 | Oregon -22 | 6.4 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 49–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. USCHome | Oregon -10 | Oregon -16.5 | 6.6 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 6.6 pts toward Oregon | W 36–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Oregon -21 | Oregon -25.5 | 4.4 pts toward Oregon | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 6.5 pts toward Oregon | W 63–19 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W9 | at UtahAway | Oregon -6.5 | Oregon -6.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 35–6 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. Washington StateHome | Oregon -19.5 | Oregon -19.5 | 0.2 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Oregon | W 38–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at WashingtonAway | Oregon +2.5 | Oregon +3 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 33–36 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at StanfordAway | Oregon -31 | Oregon -27 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 42–6 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. ColoradoHome | Oregon -28 | Oregon -21 | 6.8 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 42–6 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | at Texas TechAway | Oregon -34 | Oregon -4.5 | 29.6 pts toward opponents | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 25.9 pts toward opponents | W 38–30 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Portland StateHome | Oregon -44 | Oregon -48.5 | 4.1 pts toward Oregon | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward Oregon | W 81–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at Oregon StateAway | Oregon -5.5 | Oregon +1 | 6.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.4 pts toward opponents | L 34–38 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. UtahHome | Oregon -1.5 | Oregon -1 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 20–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. WashingtonHome | Oregon -9.5 | Oregon -12 | 2.5 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Oregon | L 34–37 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at ColoradoAway | Oregon -29.5 | Oregon -31 | 1.4 pts toward Oregon | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Oregon | W 49–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W9 | at CaliforniaAway | Oregon -14.5 | Oregon -17 | 2.3 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Oregon | W 42–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. UCLAHome | Oregon -5.5 | Oregon -7 | 1.3 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Oregon | W 45–30 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at ArizonaAway | Oregon -12.5 | Oregon -13.5 | 0.8 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Oregon | W 49–22 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. StanfordHome | Oregon -17 | Oregon -17.5 | 0.3 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Oregon | W 45–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at Washington StateAway | Oregon -8.5 | Oregon -6.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 44–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. BYUHome | Oregon +1 | Oregon -3.5 | 4.5 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 4.5 pts toward Oregon | W 41–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Eastern WashingtonHome | Oregon -16 | Oregon -27 | 11.2 pts toward Oregon | None identified | 11.2 pts toward Oregon | W 70–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. GeorgiaNeutral | Oregon +12.5 | Oregon +16 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 3–49 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State ContextSeason-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 47 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.