Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Ohio State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOregon at Ohio State
Week 10 · Nov 7Ohio Stadium · Columbus, OH
Matchup View
Opening Line
Ohio State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ohio State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusOhio State -711-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Ohio State -711-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~5.5 pts toward OregonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Ohio State was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Ohio State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Ohio State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Ohio State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Ohio State lost the most recent meeting with Oregon.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Oregon enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Oregon begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Oregon ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Oregon is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineOhio State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ohio State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOhio State -7Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Ohio State -7Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Oregon 17.2%Ohio State 82.8%
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Market consensus · Ohio State -7
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