Close-win regression Developing estimate
Oregon enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan at Oregon
Week 11 · Nov 13Autzen Stadium · Eugene, OR
Matchup View
Opening Line
Oregon -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oregon -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Single-Book LineOregon -13.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM EST
Oregon -13.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~7 pts toward OregonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Oregon begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Oregon ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Michigan is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Oregon.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Oregon by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineOregon -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oregon -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOregon -13.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback
Oregon -13.5Single-book line · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Michigan 31.4%Oregon 68.6%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Oregon -13.5
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