Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Oregon enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan at Oregon
Week 11 · Nov 13Autzen Stadium · Eugene, OR
Matchup View
Opening Line
Oregon -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oregon -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusOregon -13.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Oregon -13.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward MichiganExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Oregon was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Oregon enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Oregon is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Oregon begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Oregon ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Michigan was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Michigan is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Oregon.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Oregon by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineOregon -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oregon -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOregon -13.5Based on 1 book
Oregon -13.5Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Michigan 11.7%Oregon 88.3%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Oregon -13.5
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