Boise State at Oregon

Week 1 · Sep 5Autzen Stadium · Eugene, OR
Boise State1–1+8.3 vs. avg · #36
@
Oregon1–1+27.7 vs. avg · #4

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineOregon -21.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusOregon -24.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineOregon -21.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Boise StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineOregon -20.5Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward OregonExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineOregon -21.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Boise StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Oregon -20Opening Market ConsensusOregon -24.5Unexplained at open~4.5 pts toward OregonSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward OregonOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Oregon -20.5Current Market ConsensusOregon -24.5Unexplained gap~4 pts toward OregonExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward Boise StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Boise StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Oregon

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward Boise StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Boise StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Oregon
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Oregon's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 31%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.2 points toward Boise State (average-estimate range 0.7–2.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Oregon is favored by 24.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Oregon begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Oregon ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Boise State is a 24.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Boise State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Boise State lost the most recent meeting with Oregon.

Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Boise State 27 · Oregon 34
Pregame OV Line
Oregon -21.5
Final recorded market
Oregon -24.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Oregon -20.5
Actual margin
Oregon by 7

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Boise State 5.8%Oregon 94.2%

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Compare Teams

Boise StateVSOregon

Model View

Overall Rating+8.3 · #36+27.7 · #4
Offense Rating+4.0+14.6
Defense Rating+4.3+13.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.30
Offense Success Rate40.9%47.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.04
Defense Success Rate Allowed35.3%36.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.210.3
Playoff Odds40.7%49.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank73rd13th