Close-win regression Developing estimate
USC enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOregon at USC
Week 4 · Sep 26Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Oregon -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oregon -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusOregon -3.511-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 7:15 PM EDT
Oregon -3.511-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 7:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward USCExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate
USC has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
USC is favored in a game with a consensus total of 62.5.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
USC begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
USC ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
USC lost the most recent meeting with Oregon.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
USC lost the most recent meeting with Oregon by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Oregon enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Oregon was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Oregon enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Oregon begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Oregon ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Oregon is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Oregon 41 · USC 27
- Pregame OV Line
- Oregon -6
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Oregon -3.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Oregon by 14
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineOregon -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oregon -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOregon -3Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Oregon -3Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Oregon 67.9%USC 32.1%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Oregon -3.5
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