Offense#62
+0.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.11 #97 FBSSuccess rate38.7% #113 FBS
Big Ten · #55 of 138
Maryland
Implied Strength+3.5vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility52%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule30thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Virginia TechWeek 3 · OV Line MD +2.5 · 42% win chance →Toughest remaining test#1 Ohio StateWeek 6 · 1% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.1 rating points.
Defense#50
+2.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.11 #50 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.2% #93 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Maryland's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.7 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 52.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.6%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.6% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large0.6%
Outside field99.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Maryland. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production54.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class89thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production64thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.2Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Maryland through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS43%19–25 against consensus
Average line gap3.1 pts61% inside 3 points · 27 of 44
Factor coverage43%19 of 44 games
Factor signals76% aligned16 of 21 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Maryland games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 10 | No net direction | 70%7 of 10 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 9 | 1.3 pts toward Maryland | 78%7 of 9 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Michigan StateNeutral | Maryland +3 | Maryland +4 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward Maryland | L 28–38 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. MichiganHome | Maryland +13 | Maryland +14 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 20–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at IllinoisAway | Maryland +16 | Maryland +16.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward Maryland | L 6–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at RutgersAway | Maryland +5.5 | Maryland +1.5 | 3.8 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 3.8 pts toward Maryland | L 20–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. IndianaHome | Maryland +22.5 | Maryland +21 | 1.5 pts toward Maryland | 3.9 pts toward Maryland | 2.4 pts toward opponents | L 10–55 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at UCLAAway | Maryland +0.5 | Maryland +4 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | L 17–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. NebraskaHome | Maryland +10 | Maryland +7 | 3.2 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 3.2 pts toward Maryland | L 31–34 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. WashingtonHome | Maryland +11.5 | Maryland +5.5 | 5.9 pts toward Maryland | 1.1 pts toward Maryland | 4.8 pts toward Maryland | L 20–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at WisconsinAway | Maryland +8 | Maryland +10.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 27–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. TowsonHome | Maryland -28.5 | Maryland -28.5 | 0.2 pts toward Maryland | 1.6 pts toward Maryland | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 44–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Northern IllinoisHome | Maryland -22.5 | Maryland -17 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 20–9 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Florida AtlanticHome | Maryland -14.5 | Maryland -13.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 39–7 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W14 | at Penn StateAway | Maryland +23 | Maryland +26 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward Maryland | 5.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–44 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. IowaHome | Maryland +9 | Maryland +4 | 4.9 pts toward Maryland | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 6.7 pts toward Maryland | L 13–29 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. RutgersHome | Maryland -5 | Maryland -4.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 17–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at OregonAway | Maryland +25.5 | Maryland +24 | 1.3 pts toward Maryland | 4.3 pts toward Maryland | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 18–39 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at MinnesotaAway | Maryland +3.5 | Maryland +6 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 23–48 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. USCHome | Maryland +10 | Maryland +6.5 | 3.6 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Maryland | W 29–28 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Maryland -10.5 | Maryland -11 | 0.6 pts toward Maryland | 1.1 pts toward Maryland | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 10–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | at IndianaAway | Maryland +10.5 | Maryland +7.5 | 2.9 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Maryland | L 28–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. VillanovaHome | Maryland -20.5 | Maryland -22.5 | 1.7 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Maryland | W 38–20 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | at VirginiaAway | Maryland -3.5 | Maryland +2.5 | 6.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.1 pts toward opponents | W 27–13 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Maryland -25.5 | Maryland -8 | 17.6 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 15.1 pts toward opponents | L 24–27 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | at RutgersAway | Maryland -2.5 | Maryland -2 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 42–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. MichiganHome | Maryland +20.5 | Maryland +17.5 | 3.1 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Maryland | L 24–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at NebraskaAway | Maryland -4.5 | Maryland -1.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 13–10 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Penn StateHome | Maryland +14 | Maryland +8.5 | 5.5 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 5.5 pts toward Maryland | L 15–51 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at NorthwesternAway | Maryland -15.5 | Maryland -14 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Maryland | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 27–33 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. IllinoisHome | Maryland -13 | Maryland -13.5 | 0.6 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Maryland | L 24–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at Ohio StateAway | Maryland +19.5 | Maryland +17 | 2.4 pts toward Maryland | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward Maryland | L 17–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. IndianaHome | Maryland -15 | Maryland -14 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 44–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at Michigan StateAway | Maryland +3 | Maryland -7.5 | 10.5 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 10.5 pts toward Maryland | W 31–9 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. VirginiaHome | Maryland -20 | Maryland -16.5 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.7 pts toward opponents | W 42–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. TowsonHome | Maryland -33 | Maryland -38.5 | 5.3 pts toward Maryland | 1.9 pts toward Maryland | 3.5 pts toward Maryland | W 38–6 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. RutgersHome | Maryland -15 | Maryland -14.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 37–0 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Maryland +26 | Maryland +26.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Maryland | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 30–43 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W11 | at Penn StateAway | Maryland +11.5 | Maryland +10.5 | 0.9 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Maryland | L 0–30 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at WisconsinAway | Maryland +7 | Maryland +5 | 2.1 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Maryland | L 10–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Maryland -18 | Maryland -14.5 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 31–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W7 | at IndianaAway | Maryland -11.5 | Maryland -11 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 38–33 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. PurdueHome | Maryland -3 | Maryland -3 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 29–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Maryland -1 | Maryland -7.5 | 6.7 pts toward Maryland | None identified | 6.7 pts toward Maryland | W 27–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at MichiganAway | Maryland +27 | Maryland +17 | 10.1 pts toward Maryland | 3.1 pts toward Maryland | 7.0 pts toward Maryland | L 27–34 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. SMUHome | Maryland -3.5 | Maryland -3 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 34–27 | W | None identified |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.