Hampton at Maryland

Week 1 · Sep 5SECU Stadium · College Park, MD
HamptonFCS
@
Maryland2–0+3.5 vs. avg · #55

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineMaryland -50Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusMaryland -45.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMaryland -50Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward HamptonOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMaryland -47.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward HamptonExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMaryland -50Factor adjustment (Open)~4.5 pts toward HamptonOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Maryland -45.5Opening Market ConsensusMaryland -45.5Unexplained at open< 0.5 pts toward MarylandSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward MarylandOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Maryland -47.5Current Market ConsensusMaryland -45.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward HamptonExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward HamptonAt open ~4.5 pts toward HamptonIn-week ~2 pts toward Maryland

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward HamptonAt open ~4.5 pts toward HamptonIn-week ~2 pts toward Maryland
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Maryland's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 96%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Hampton (average-estimate range 1.4–3.4), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Hampton 0 · Maryland 62
Pregame OV Line
Maryland -50
Final recorded market
Maryland -45.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Maryland -47.5
Actual margin
Maryland by 62

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Hampton <0.01%Maryland >99.9%

Compare Teams

HamptonVSMaryland

Model View

Overall Rating—+3.5 · #55
Offense Rating—+0.7
Defense Rating—+2.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.11
Offense Success Rate—38.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed—43.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.2
Playoff Odds—0.6%
Strength of Schedule Rank—30th