Rutgers at Maryland

Week 7 · Oct 17SECU Stadium · College Park, MD

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineMaryland -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMaryland -610-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMaryland -4.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward RutgersOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMaryland -3Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward MarylandExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMaryland -4.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward RutgersOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Maryland -3Opening Market ConsensusMaryland -6Unexplained at open~3 pts toward MarylandSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Maryland -3Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMaryland -6Unexplained gap~3 pts toward MarylandExplore similar gaps Rutgers has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Rutgers

Rutgers has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Rutgers

Rutgers has 6.8 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Rutgers; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Maryland enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Maryland enters after losing its previous lined game by 29 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Maryland enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Maryland enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Maryland is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Maryland lost the most recent meeting with Rutgers.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Maryland lost the most recent meeting with Rutgers by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Rutgers enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Rutgers enters after losing its previous lined game by 32 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Rutgers enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Rutgers enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Rutgers is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Rutgers faces materially stronger Northwestern in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Rutgers 37 · Maryland 30
Pregame OV Line
Maryland -4.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Maryland -6
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Maryland -3
Actual margin
Rutgers by 7

Observed 3h 27m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Rutgers 36.9%Maryland 63.1%

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Compare Teams

RutgersVSMaryland

Model View

Overall Rating-2.8 · #80-0.4 · #74
Offense Rating+1.8-1.2
Defense Rating-4.6+0.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.210.11
Offense Success Rate46.2%38.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.310.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed47.3%43.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.95.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank31st18th