Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Minnesota is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMississippi State at Minnesota
Week 2 · Sep 12Huntington Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Minnesota -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Minnesota -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market Consensus
Mississippi State -0.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Mississippi State -0.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Mississippi StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Mississippi State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Mississippi State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Mississippi State 38 · Minnesota 13
- Pregame OV Line
- Minnesota -2.5
- Final recorded market
- Mississippi State -0.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Mississippi State by 25
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMinnesota -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Minnesota -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMinnesota -1Based on 2 books
Minnesota -1Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Mississippi State 41.8%Minnesota 58.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Mississippi State -0.5
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